Einstein once said that everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid. This is the mentality I try to use in my classroom every day. Oftentimes students can enter a classroom and feel defeated before the course even begins. They’ve seen their grade in math, history, or whatever subject and know that’s just not their subject. It comes down to the teacher adapting the class to fit their skill set. Instead of creating summative tasks that complement their strengths, students are forced to do something that features skills that they don’t have and that leads to failure.
Take for instance “Jane”. She entered my classroom and instantly said that she “hated history with a passion.” When her parents asked for a conference to start the year, they explained her test anxiety, difficulties in memorizing dates and information, and other issues that had arisen in the past. I began to think about how I could reach her and other students that had similar issues. I began designing more project-based learning that allowed them to not only utilize a skill that they were comfortable with but combine it with a skill that they will need regardless of the profession they enter [speaking skills]. Jane loved clothing and design. She was an amazing artist. While we still would have to use some formal testing assessments at times, they would always be supplemented so that she and other kids could thrive. When we covered the Civil War, she learned about the design of uniforms and the intricacies that went along with them. During WWII she had the chance to research Zoot Suits, the issues with them and even recreate one for the class. As a result, she received her best history grade ever and I had a new teaching strategy to help students who didn’t fall into that traditional role. It was about her finding a spot that finally utilized her skills appropriately.
Circumstance is always important in life. For Jane, it took her nearly 11 years of education to find a classroom and history teacher that would play to her strengths. For Kenyan Drake, it took nearly his entire professional career until someone recognized his talents and unleashed him. I believe that Kenyan Drake is the buy low of the summer in football. While we are uncertain about his current destination in Free Agency, one thing is for sure, this man can ball. From the time he joined Arizona in Week 9 of last year to the final snap of Week 17, he was the RB4 in PPR leagues. While people might say that this was a fluke. They will say he is a flash in the pan and he won’t find nearly the same success otherwise. But after taking a deeper look into the numbers, I’m not so sure I agree with that sentiment. I took a look at Drake’s OL Play and Consistency and found some intriguing numbers that point to him being a huge buy for both NFL and fantasy teams.
Offensive Line Play
One of the most important things for an RBs success in the NFL is solid offensive line play. Even the best RBs can have difficulty displaying their skills if they are consistently being stuffed around the line of scrimmage due to a shoddy OL. For Kenyan Drake, he played nearly his entire career behind some of the worst OLs in the league. As we look at the chart below, we will see exactly what Drake was working with during his short career.
All stats in this chart were pulled off the FootballOutsiders website. Here is a brief explanation from their site about each of the stats I’ve pulled.
Stuffed Ranking is the percentage of runs where the RB is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. Teams were ranked from least often (#1) to most often (#32).
Adjusted Line Yards Based on regression analysis, the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:
Losses: 120% value
0-4 Yards: 100% value
5-10 Yards: 50% value
11+ Yards: 0% value
These numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, situation, opponent, and the difference in rushing average between shotgun compared to standard formations. Finally, we normalize the numbers so that the league average for Adjusted Line Yards per carry is the same as the league average for RB yards per carry.
Open Field Yards: Yards which this team's running backs earn more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, divided by total running back carries.
As they explain on the site: A team with a high ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a low ranking in Open Field Yards is heavily dependent on its offensive line to make the running game work. A team with a low ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a high ranking in Open Field Yards is heavily dependent on its running back breaking long runs to make the running game work.
In other words, for the majority of his career, Drake has been behind some of the worst OLs imaginable. RBs on those teams were being tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage consistently. They ranked extremely low on Adjusted Line Yards Ranking (ALYR) due to poor work there. Yet when we look at the Open Field Yards Ranking (OFYR) we see that Drake’s teams were consistently better than their ALYR. This is due to the big-play ability that Drake has. We’ve seen it time and time again. When this man gets the ball, he makes things happen. The numbers prove it.
Consistency
One of the most difficult things to handle in fantasy sports is the week to week inconsistency of players. This is especially true at the RB position. Everyone wants to have RBs that will consistently get them Top 24 numbers. Everyone would love to have an RB that consistently gets them Top 12 numbers. The problem is identifying the guys who aren’t going to cost you an arm and a leg in order to get that.
When a coaching staff has actually utilized Drake like a starter (over 60% snap share), he has demolished the competition. Here are his numbers below:
As we can see, Drake is a consistent monster. In the 22 games where he has received a starters share of snaps (~over 60% snap share%), he has finished as an RB1 over 45% of the time. He has finished as a Top 24 back over 68% of the time. Those are some insane numbers.
Let’s compare that to another RB from last year that everyone loves.
Nick Chubb finished as an RB1 in 5/16 games where he has a snap share% over 60. That’s 31%.
I bet I can tell you which one is going to be cheaper to buy for next year. (Hint: It’s Drake).
Final Point
Kenyan Drake has been overlooked his whole playing career. From his time at Alabama to his time in the NFL. It wasn’t until Kliff Kingsbury gave him the opportunity, that we saw him flourish. We don’t know where Drake will end up next year. Right now he is asking for a very nice chunk of money. He may end up getting it or he may not. One thing he did prove last year was that he can handle the rock and do great things when called upon. Even when the entire Cardinals backfield was healthy, Drake dominated the snaps in Arizona. If he ends up resigning there, I think he quite easily becomes a Top 10 dynasty RB in leagues. Based on his asking price, I can’t see Drake being signed by a team and relegated back to second-hand snap, touches, and carries in this league. He has shown too much ability to be a second-string at this point in his career. The lack of wear and tear might actually be a positive for fantasy owners as well. Due to his limited touches in his career, his peak might take him a few years later than most. Just another reason to buy into the man. Drake just needs that one dance and he will prove his worth to you. Go out there and get your shares while you can’t. I can promise, it won’t last long.